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Listen To This: The Post-Debate Universe

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh break down the state of the race post-Kamala Harris’ debate dominance.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

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Ummm … What’s Going on In North Carolina?

Let me give you a brief update on a story out of North Carolina, or rather rumors out of North Carolina. Because it’s really nothing more than rumors. But it could be real and could be a pretty big deal. We’re told that CNN is about to publish a story that is likely to, or could, knock Lt Gov. Mark Robinson out of the governor’s race in North Carolina. That’s pretty stunning because Robinson is a freakshow candidate even in the broader menagerie of GOP freakshow candidates. Hunter Walker had an early jump on his freak flag in this story from a year and a half ago. That raises the question of what could possibly be so bad, so insane, outrageous or criminal that it would knock him out of the race. The rumors suggest something of a sexual nature. There already was a story a couple week ago claiming, over Robinson’s denials, that Robinson was a regular at porn-shop viewing booths in the ’90s and early 2000s. So what could it possibly be? And don’t forget that a major shakeup at the top of the ticket in North Carolina could conceivably impact the winner of the presidential election.

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Actual Springfield Ohio Story Is Pretty Different from What You’ve Heard

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Actual Springfield Ohio Story Is Pretty Different from What You’ve Heard

I continue to have what I guess I would call a mild confidence that not just the Trump campaign but some amount of the political press is missing the political valence of the situation in Springfield, Ohio — the point I alluded to in this post from yesterday. But I want to zoom in on one aspect of the story. Trump and Vance are obviously telling a really lurid and ugly story about half-savage outsiders being foisted on a town of hard-working Americans from the Heartland. But even a lot of the non-far-right coverage has operated on the assumption that either the federal government or some outside entity has essentially resettled a large community of refugees in this one city. But that’s not really what happened here at all. The influx of immigrants into the city is actually a direct result of economic redevelopment plans devised by local leaders, most of whom are Republicans.


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Yet More Polls

For reasons that are not altogether clear, a ton of polls came out overnight. Just in Pennsylvania alone, for example, I believe we have six new, decent-quality polls from just last night. We also have a few new national polls — Fox and NYT/Siena. I don’t know what appetite anyone has left for me doing deep-dive polling analysis of so many polls when, if you’re really that interested, you can see what the actual polling analysts say. (I have limited appetite to hear myself at this point.) I’d say the 30,000-foot takeaway is that they’re telling a pretty good story for Harris. We continue to see more evidence that Harris is consolidating real leads across the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and, yes … Pennsylvania. Of those six PA polls, three showed a tie. The other three showed leads of three, four and five points, respectively. Across these results you also see more signs of Harris consolidating or in some cases expanding on the 2020 Biden coalition, especially with “traditional” Dem constituencies. One detail I find interesting are the increasing signs that Republicans’ Electoral College advantage may be diminishing. As I said, if you don’t want to get into the nitty gritty, which may tell you less rather than more, the gist is that Harris seems to be consolidating a small but significant lead based on the Blue Wall states while remaining close or tied in the Southern tier states, where she may be better positioned in North Carolina than Georgia and possibly Arizona.

LIVE COVERAGE

A Look at the Race 48 Days Out

We are now 48 days until the 2024 general election. And with the date speeding toward us, I wanted to check in on the state of the race and the latest polls. Kate and I recorded this week’s podcast this morning. And the theme was sort of trying to make sense of just what is happening right now in the aftermath of the build up to the debate and the debate itself. We have another assassination attempt which seems like an oddly secondary story. We have the ongoing grotesquery of Trump’s and Vance’s assault on Springfield, Ohio. The Trump campaign has been rather candid with reporters, telling them that they’re willing to take the hit on now admitting they were lying about the initial Fido and Felix barbecue allegations since it puts immigration at the forefront of the campaign. In other words, it might seem like a bad story for them — they’re revealed as cynical and destructive liars. But it’s a great theme for them. Because if the topic of the day is immigration, they win.

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What The Hell Was That? Some days, ya’ll. Yesterday was one of them. Rather than headlining any single one of the day’s weird, troubling, or strange outbursts, Morning Memo will just work through them in rough order of relative importance.

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